Crude Oil Stable On Weaker Dollar, But Pockets Of Oversupply Linger

Russian Saudi energy ministers discuss oil cooperation

Crude Oil Stable On Weaker Dollar, But Pockets Of Oversupply Linger

The surge in USA production and exports means oil may be in oversupply again soon, flipping a deficit from 2017 induced by supply restraint led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russian Federation. It will be the resumption of the trend.

Brent for April settlement fell 69 pennies to $61.90 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe trade. "In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 b/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia".

The situation in the United States suggests that history is repeating itself and what we are seeing now is indeed a second shale revolution that could bring petroleum liquids production on par with global demand growth.

"In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, with more favorable assumptions for geology and technological developments, the United States becomes a net exporter in 2020, and net exports increase through the end of the projection period".

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That report was released about a half-hour before crude contracts closed on Monday and combined with recent reports from OPEC signaling similar expectations for increased output, helped to pare earlier WTI oil gains (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-shale-oil-output-forecast-to-rise-by-110000-barrels-a-day-in-march-eia-2018-02-12).

"As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as USA production rises", IEA researchers said.

OPEC, Russia, and other producers are keeping 1.8 million barrels a day off the market in a bid to shrink global stockpiles of crude oil.

But a threat to that outlook continues to lurk in the background: USA crude production. At this point last year, the global crude oil inventory sat at 264 million barrels above the five-year average and now that was close to 50 million barrels of overhang.

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Oil held declines below $60 a barrel as industry data showed that USA crude and gasoline inventories expanded, undermining an effort by OPEC and its allies to clear a global glut. With the industry cleansed of its excesses, and oil prices up more than double from their $26 bottom of two years ago, another boom has begun.

Trade patterns, meanwhile, are changing in part because of the 2015 end to a ban on US crude oil exports, a ban imposed after the Arab oil embargo on the United States in the 1970s.

Which helps explain why the United Arab Emirates turned to a U.S. supplier in a pinch.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week said that it expects domestic crude oil production to rise by more than previously expected this year.

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