US crude oil production is being forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, marking the highest annual average production in USA history.
The EIA revised its production growth forecast for 2018 sharply higher to 970,000 bpd from 780,000 bpd in its previous outlook. The EIA anticipates OPEC production to increase by 500,000 b/d in 2019 as it slowly returns to pre-agreement levels.
WTI was trading up 2.33% (+$1.44) at $63.17 at 1:51pm EST. This reflects strong demand by refiners for prompt crude oil which is a bullish sign for the petroleum markets.
Mumbai: The continuing surge in crude prices, which has touched Dollars 70 per barrel-mark, the highest since December 2014, is likely to continue till March, impacting inflation, balance of payments and fiscal policy, says a report.
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Brent crude futures, used in the pricing of more than half the world's oil, rose as much as 1.2 percent to the highest since December 4, 2014.
Oil prices are now at levels at which US production could substantially increase.
Production was expected to rise to an average 10.04 million bpd during the first quarter of this year, the agency said in a monthly report.
Despite the prospect of flat crude oil prices into the future, EIA forecasts total US crude oil production will increase to an average of 10.3 million b/d in 2018, up 1.0 million b/d from 2017. Regional summer price spikes can not be precisely predicted.The agency expects gasoline demand in 2018 to total about 9.3 million barrels a day this year, a level that would surpass all-time records set last year.
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Analysts say the potential for robust U.S. production growth will be a challenge to OPEC and other leading oil exporters such as Russian Federation, which have cut production in an effort to eliminate the worldwide glut. The EIA feels the $61/b figure will be driven by slow, but increasing consumption levels that will be offset somewhat by higher global production.
"This year's rapid rise in oil prices, which hit $70 this week, is backed by strong demand growth and a fall in oversupply on the back of the OPEC and non-OPEC pact, not only by political tensions, Mazroui said".
Refinery activity likely dipped last week after having risen to its highest level of 2017, but remained elevated given an incentive to crank out distillates to meet heating fuel demand.
Total US petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption is forecast to average 20.3 mb/d this year, up 2.4% from 2017, and rising by another 340,000 b/d, or 1.7%, in 2019.
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