Oil price drops more than US$1on IEA warning of shrinking demand

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International Gas Union Reaction to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2017

Paris-based IEA predicts that USA shale oil producers will boost their output by 8 million barrels a day between 2010 and 2025, an increase that "would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets" - rivaling even the massive increase posted by Saudi Arabia between 1966 and 1981.

The difference between supply and demand isn't as tight as "some would like", the IEA added.

"Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places", said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

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Meanwhile events in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's kingpin, "have added extra momentum to the rally that has driven oil prices from lows of $45/bbl (Brent) in late June to around $63/bbl recently", the IEA said.

Under its "New Policies Scenario", based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.

"Using a scenario whereby current levels of OPEC production are maintained, the oil market faces a hard challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd followed by another, smaller, surplus of 200,000 bpd in 2Q18", the agency said.

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"Meeting this demand would require an overall investment of around $10.5 trillion across upstream, midstream and downstream operations" Opec Secretary-General, Mohammad Barkindo, said noting that the 2017 outlook was more positive than previous year, partly thanks to oil exporting nations' efforts to stabilise the market. It kept its estimate for this year at 3.08 million bpd. "This is a continuation of the strong demand growth we are seeing in our short term oil market analysis", the report said.

If planned pipeline projects come to fruition, the United States and Canada combined could export more than 700,000 bpd to China by 2040 - a drop in the barrel in the country's 15.5 million bpd demand. "Electric vehicles are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs, but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, shipping, and aviation keep pushing demand higher".

Also weighing on the oil price, is the increasing prospect of a slower pace of economic growth in China.

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The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent - would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it said.

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