Crude Oil Prices - Weekly Outlook: October 23 - 27

Brent daily chart

Brent daily chart

Crude oil futures rose 0.8 per cent to Rs 3,422 per barrel today as speculators raised their bets amid a firm trend overseas.

Barrel is the unit of measurement of oil volume.

"The oil market still remains deaf in one ear and is responding primarily to price-supportive news", said Commerzbank in a recent note. Now trade is carried out by the exchange's two divisions, the NYMEX Division and the COMEX Division, the first one designed for trades of oil, gas, platinum, palladium, ethanol, coal, electricity and carbon dioxide emissions, the second one for gold, silver, copper and aluminum.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at 52.03 dollars per barrel.

Fighting between Iraqi government forces and Kurdish militants around Kirkuk continued over the weekend.

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Meanwhile, futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the USA, added 52 cents, or roughly 0.9%, to settle at $57.75 a barrel.

According to Baker Hughes energy services firm, the amount of US oil rigs drilling for new production fell by seven to 736 in the week of October 20, the lowest level since June. "The prices of both oil types, and especially of Brent, are overheated and [we] expect them to correct in the short term".

RBC Capital Markets said: "A strong indicator that global inventories are being run down will be when the market starts relying on U.S. exports to fill deficits".

Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that overseas United States crude oil shipments have soared from virtually zero before the government loosened export restrictions in late 2015 to around 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in October.

Despite the bullish signals, analysts warned that OPEC needs to extend its agreement to reduce oil output beyond its current March 2018 expiry date in order to rebalance the market.

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Earlier, oil prices rose slightly from Friday, boosted by data from Baker Hughes Inc. showing a third-straight decline in the number of active oil rigs, a proxy for drilling activity.

The original deal, struck almost a year ago between OPEC and 10 other non-OPEC countries led by Russian Federation, was to cut production by 1.8 million barrels a day for six months.

The crude oil volatility index, which measures market expectations for 30-day price volatility, fell to levels similar to those seen in 2014 last Friday.

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the USA oil rig count.

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